ISSUE 02JUNE 3, 2026EU INDUSTRIAL PROCUREMENT

EU carbon price rebounds to €74 — steel, aluminium, and cement buyers should recalculate landed costs now

THIS ISSUE COVERS / AU SOMMAIRE

→EU ETS Phase 4 Carbon Price Rebounds to €73–75/tonne
→German Mittelstand Capex Freeze Deepens — Supplier Pipelines Thinning
→EU Provisional Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese HRC: 11.5–29.9%
→Red Sea: Second-Tier Carriers Trialing Suez — Major Lines Still Cape-Routing
→Central European Nearshoring FDI Hits Record (Poland, Romania, Slovakia)
→Procurement Move: Stellantis Cuts Q3 Tier-1 Orders 15–20%
→Regulatory Clock: EU Batteries Regulation Supply Chain Due Diligence (Feb 2027)

THIS WEEK'S BRIEF / LE BRIEF DE LA SEMAINE

EU ETS allowance prices have recovered sharply from their Q1 trough, resetting cost assumptions for energy-intensive procurement categories just as German industrial capex continues to contract. Meanwhile, newly reported provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese flat steel (European Commission, 2026) are changing the landed-cost calculus for steel buyers, and Red Sea routing disruptions are showing early — but fragile — normalization signals. Five moves worth your attention this week.

SIGNAL ITEMS / SIGNAUX

01

EU ETS Phase 4 Carbon Price Rebounds to €73–75/tonne

After dropping to approximately €54/tonne in Q1 2026 amid lower winter energy demand and reduced industrial output, EU ETS allowance prices have recovered to €73–75/tonne as of early June 2026, driven by renewed institutional buying, tighter auction volumes in Phase 4, and recovering manufacturing output.

For procurement teams buying steel, flat glass, cement, or industrial chemicals from EU producers, this translates directly into margin-driven price increase requests: every €10/tonne increase in ETS prices adds an estimated €8–12 to the cost of producing one tonne of hot-rolled coil (industry cost-model estimates) and approximately €6–9 per tonne of float glass (estimated). Engage key suppliers before Q3 contract renewals to separate energy and carbon pass-through components from base pricing — indexed structures will be significantly easier to manage than fixed-price roll-overs in this environment.

Source / Source: European Energy Exchange (EEX); ICE Futures Europe EUA front-month settlement, June 3, 2026

02

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